Wednesday, 5 October 2016

Is India at her strategic best with China at a precarious position in the PoK post Uri and Surgical Strikes?

Pakistan downplaying and rejecting the first-of-its-kind surgical strikes made by India on the terrorist launch-pads located in PoK certainly shows the adeptness of our military expertise over theirs. India have got worldwide acceptance of the strike and the big powers (US and Russia) have asked Islamabad to eliminate terrorist camps sprouting in Pakistan. China, in this case, has caught itself in a catch 22 situation. Supporting Pakistan would bring in international defamation, and it can definitely not support India that it has always been envious of!

China that invests heavily in Pakistan for the CPEC and other superstructures, cannot afford to allow Pakistan’s economy go topsy-turvy. CPEC would offer the Chinese a strategic advantage over India and the Indian Ocean region. Just after India claimed that it had conducted surgical strikes across the LoC and destroyed several terrorist camps, China asked Islamabad and New Delhi to settle the matter bilaterally using political and diplomatic means. Recently, China announced that it had blocked a tributary of the Brahmaputra to facilitate work on one of its "most expensive" hydropower projects in Tibet. Brahmaputra waters remains an emotive, volatile issue in India's northeast, particularly Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. This might come in response to India’s announcement of reviewing the Indus Waters Treaty. In addition China has also extended the technical hold on India’s move to get Masood Azhar (JeM chief) listed as a terrorist by the UN. China’s involvement and its inclination towards Pakistan can now be felt.

The issue of Balochistan (where the CPEC meets the Arabian Sea at Gwadar Port) concerns China. Internationalising the issue by Narendra Modi has also affected Chinese stand in the global forum. So the Chinese, at the moment, are not the happiest with India.

Should there be another Indo-Pak war, history says China has never helped Pakistan directly in its war against India. But when its own investments are on stake, it might take some drastic steps. The hinting is already being seen.

Whether India is at a beneficial situation right now is more or less vague. The current situation might look in our favour but we shouldn’t get carried away boasting of it. I’m afraid such chest-thumping could enrage the opposition in taking bolder steps.

It has now become difficult for China and Pakistan to proceed with the CPEC project. I’m sure things won’t be smooth. China should just understand the folly it has committed by announcing a $46 billion project involving disputed territories!

We have avenged, our stand was clear. Pakistan’s denial should NOT worry India. India does not want things to get escalated. The message has gone clear that India can long for offensive defense. But India should be ready for any misconduct on the part of Pakistan. Saying this India should now not be obsessed with Pakistan, and rather look inside for development of the nation. We do have a lot of issues to address to.

Let’s wait for someone else to make the next move!

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